Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 8326 | 39458 | 257 | 65 | 536 | 763 |
| December 11 2020 | 8369 | 39581 | 260 | 65 | 515 | 806 |
| December 12 2020 | 8454 | 39704 | 260 | 65 | 545 | 793 |
| December 13 2020 | 8486 | 39812 | 260 | 65 | 530 | 730 |
| December 14 2020 | 8514 | 39927 | 261 | 65 | 475 | 724 |
| December 15 2020 | 8537 | 39975 | 262 | 65 | 438 | 683 |
| December 16 2020 | 8600 | 40141 | 266 | 66 | 451 | 691 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.1 | 8.2% | 37 | 0.32% | 56 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.3 | 11.5% | 52 | 0.38% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 9.9 | 22.6% | 102 | 0.49% | 165 | 0.79% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.0 | 16.9% | 76 | 0.56% | 122 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.4 | 11.3% | 51 | 0.49% | 74 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.3 | 12.2% | 55 | 0.44% | 80 | 0.64% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 4.4 | 9.1% | 41 | 0.36% | 61 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.7 | 8.2% | 37 | 0.35% | 45 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 63 | 47.1 | 100% | 451 | 0.43% | 691 | 0.66% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 5314 | 23878 | 153 | 58 | 648 | 784 |
| December 11 2020 | 5373 | 23956 | 155 | 57 | 579 | 842 |
| December 12 2020 | 5408 | 24012 | 159 | 59 | 487 | 873 |
| December 13 2020 | 5424 | 24079 | 160 | 60 | 434 | 826 |
| December 14 2020 | 5463 | 24135 | 162 | 61 | 412 | 797 |
| December 15 2020 | 5476 | 24178 | 163 | 62 | 336 | 682 |
| December 16 2020 | 5504 | 24247 | 163 | 63 | 319 | 583 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.3 | 4.1% | 13 | 0.17% | 26 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.6 | 9.1% | 29 | 0.35% | 50 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 4.9 | 16.9% | 54 | 0.76% | 100 | 1.41% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.4 | 15.7% | 50 | 0.59% | 103 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 6.0 | 17.6% | 56 | 0.72% | 101 | 1.3% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.4 | 15.4% | 49 | 0.51% | 84 | 0.87% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.7 | 11.3% | 36 | 0.43% | 60 | 0.71% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.1 | 10% | 32 | 0.45% | 59 | 0.83% |
| All ages | 28 | 32.4 | 100% | 319 | 0.49% | 583 | 0.9% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 3931 | 15912 | 164 | 46 | 312 | 466 |
| December 11 2020 | 3964 | 16010 | 167 | 49 | 314 | 499 |
| December 12 2020 | 4001 | 16059 | 169 | 50 | 313 | 443 |
| December 13 2020 | 4021 | 16111 | 169 | 50 | 300 | 441 |
| December 14 2020 | 4043 | 16129 | 169 | 50 | 289 | 424 |
| December 15 2020 | 4050 | 16149 | 169 | 50 | 248 | 400 |
| December 16 2020 | 4085 | 16211 | 170 | 50 | 241 | 397 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 3.7% | 9 | 0.17% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.0 | 6.6% | 16 | 0.29% | 33 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.7 | 14.1% | 34 | 0.75% | 55 | 1.22% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 4.4 | 16.2% | 39 | 0.72% | 67 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.1 | 18.3% | 44 | 0.88% | 68 | 1.37% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.1 | 16.2% | 39 | 0.57% | 63 | 0.93% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.1 | 12.4% | 30 | 0.47% | 41 | 0.65% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.1 | 12.4% | 30 | 0.47% | 51 | 0.81% |
| All ages | 35 | 25.7 | 100% | 241 | 0.53% | 397 | 0.88% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 8948 | 42571 | 202 | 42 | 861 | 1187 |
| December 11 2020 | 9015 | 42725 | 205 | 42 | 889 | 1202 |
| December 12 2020 | 9068 | 42884 | 205 | 43 | 859 | 1162 |
| December 13 2020 | 9116 | 42999 | 205 | 43 | 716 | 1105 |
| December 14 2020 | 9146 | 43085 | 207 | 43 | 590 | 1059 |
| December 15 2020 | 9220 | 43227 | 213 | 46 | 579 | 1094 |
| December 16 2020 | 9297 | 43404 | 213 | 46 | 620 | 1088 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.5% | 22 | 0.19% | 47 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.1 | 10.6% | 66 | 0.4% | 125 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 13.3 | 22.4% | 139 | 0.65% | 229 | 1.08% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 7.4 | 13.7% | 85 | 0.63% | 170 | 1.25% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 7.4 | 14.4% | 89 | 0.65% | 145 | 1.07% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 9.9 | 16.8% | 104 | 0.73% | 170 | 1.2% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.4 | 10.2% | 63 | 0.44% | 115 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 7 | 5.3 | 8.4% | 52 | 0.4% | 87 | 0.67% |
| All ages | 77 | 55.6 | 100% | 620 | 0.52% | 1088 | 0.92% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 29864 | 282086 | 887 | 109 | 2375 | 3497 |
| December 11 2020 | 30032 | 282782 | 897 | 112 | 2432 | 3620 |
| December 12 2020 | 30250 | 283544 | 902 | 112 | 2420 | 3407 |
| December 13 2020 | 30474 | 284654 | 904 | 113 | 2248 | 3238 |
| December 14 2020 | 30653 | 285123 | 906 | 113 | 2043 | 3164 |
| December 15 2020 | 30682 | 285200 | 915 | 116 | 1735 | 3082 |
| December 16 2020 | 30853 | 285746 | 920 | 136 | 1800 | 3023 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 8.1 | 5.2% | 93 | 0.15% | 143 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 21.7 | 12.2% | 219 | 0.31% | 388 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 38.7 | 22% | 396 | 0.38% | 671 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 40 | 29.3 | 16.6% | 299 | 0.39% | 506 | 0.66% |
| 40-49 | 27 | 22.6 | 12.6% | 227 | 0.35% | 417 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 30 | 20.0 | 12.1% | 217 | 0.33% | 361 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 17.3 | 9.6% | 172 | 0.31% | 272 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 13 | 19.0 | 9.8% | 177 | 0.36% | 265 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 171 | 176.7 | 100% | 1800 | 0.33% | 3023 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 10 2020 | 426099 | 2224578 | 18875 | 3944 | 38864 | 51562 |
| December 11 2020 | 429957 | 2231765 | 19020 | 3991 | 38644 | 54120 |
| December 12 2020 | 434016 | 2241348 | 19162 | 4041 | 38926 | 53146 |
| December 13 2020 | 436773 | 2250766 | 19249 | 4056 | 37065 | 52072 |
| December 14 2020 | 438895 | 2255994 | 19326 | 4068 | 34340 | 51660 |
| December 15 2020 | 442396 | 2259792 | 19510 | 4122 | 33010 | 51083 |
| December 16 2020 | 444798 | 2266641 | 19656 | 4196 | 32621 | 49708 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 135 | 153.6 | 4.8% | 1560 | 0.24% | 2370 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 259 | 356.0 | 10.9% | 3552 | 0.47% | 5500 | 0.73% |
| 20-29 | 358 | 534.6 | 16.5% | 5376 | 0.71% | 8262 | 1.09% |
| 30-39 | 373 | 509.6 | 15.8% | 5168 | 0.68% | 8018 | 1.06% |
| 40-49 | 342 | 466.3 | 14.3% | 4668 | 0.67% | 7122 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 377 | 498.1 | 15.4% | 5032 | 0.62% | 7613 | 0.93% |
| 60-69 | 291 | 378.6 | 11.6% | 3786 | 0.5% | 5692 | 0.75% |
| 70+ | 267 | 350.9 | 10.7% | 3479 | 0.54% | 5131 | 0.8% |
| All ages | 2402 | 3247.6 | 100% | 32621 | 0.56% | 49708 | 0.85% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 64.7 | 78.8 | 47.1 | 62.6 | 29.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90.2 | 32.4 | 86.4 | 27.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87.7 | 25.7 | 34.9 | 33.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 75.5 | 107.6 | 55.6 | 105 | 27.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.3 | 54.6 | 64.6 | 176.7 | 300.6 | 21.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.4 | 72.7 | 109.2 | 3247.6 | 4073.7 | 31% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.54 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3778"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges