Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 8326 39458 257 65 536 763
December 11 2020 8369 39581 260 65 515 806
December 12 2020 8454 39704 260 65 545 793
December 13 2020 8486 39812 260 65 530 730
December 14 2020 8514 39927 261 65 475 724
December 15 2020 8537 39975 262 65 438 683
December 16 2020 8600 40141 266 66 451 691
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 4.1 8.2% 37 0.32% 56 0.49%
10-19 7 5.3 11.5% 52 0.38% 88 0.65%
20-29 11 9.9 22.6% 102 0.49% 165 0.79%
30-39 7 8.0 16.9% 76 0.56% 122 0.9%
40-49 8 5.4 11.3% 51 0.49% 74 0.71%
50-59 7 5.3 12.2% 55 0.44% 80 0.64%
60-69 9 4.4 9.1% 41 0.36% 61 0.53%
70+ 7 4.7 8.2% 37 0.35% 45 0.43%
All ages 63 47.1 100% 451 0.43% 691 0.66%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 5314 23878 153 58 648 784
December 11 2020 5373 23956 155 57 579 842
December 12 2020 5408 24012 159 59 487 873
December 13 2020 5424 24079 160 60 434 826
December 14 2020 5463 24135 162 61 412 797
December 15 2020 5476 24178 163 62 336 682
December 16 2020 5504 24247 163 63 319 583
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.3 4.1% 13 0.17% 26 0.34%
10-19 4 3.6 9.1% 29 0.35% 50 0.59%
20-29 2 4.9 16.9% 54 0.76% 100 1.41%
30-39 4 5.4 15.7% 50 0.59% 103 1.23%
40-49 7 6.0 17.6% 56 0.72% 101 1.3%
50-59 3 4.4 15.4% 49 0.51% 84 0.87%
60-69 4 3.7 11.3% 36 0.43% 60 0.71%
70+ 2 3.1 10% 32 0.45% 59 0.83%
All ages 28 32.4 100% 319 0.49% 583 0.9%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 3931 15912 164 46 312 466
December 11 2020 3964 16010 167 49 314 499
December 12 2020 4001 16059 169 50 313 443
December 13 2020 4021 16111 169 50 300 441
December 14 2020 4043 16129 169 50 289 424
December 15 2020 4050 16149 169 50 248 400
December 16 2020 4085 16211 170 50 241 397
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.0 3.7% 9 0.17% 19 0.35%
10-19 3 2.0 6.6% 16 0.29% 33 0.61%
20-29 3 3.7 14.1% 34 0.75% 55 1.22%
30-39 8 4.4 16.2% 39 0.72% 67 1.23%
40-49 5 5.1 18.3% 44 0.88% 68 1.37%
50-59 2 3.1 16.2% 39 0.57% 63 0.93%
60-69 7 3.1 12.4% 30 0.47% 41 0.65%
70+ 4 3.1 12.4% 30 0.47% 51 0.81%
All ages 35 25.7 100% 241 0.53% 397 0.88%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 8948 42571 202 42 861 1187
December 11 2020 9015 42725 205 42 889 1202
December 12 2020 9068 42884 205 43 859 1162
December 13 2020 9116 42999 205 43 716 1105
December 14 2020 9146 43085 207 43 590 1059
December 15 2020 9220 43227 213 46 579 1094
December 16 2020 9297 43404 213 46 620 1088
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.7 3.5% 22 0.19% 47 0.4%
10-19 8 5.1 10.6% 66 0.4% 125 0.76%
20-29 20 13.3 22.4% 139 0.65% 229 1.08%
30-39 14 7.4 13.7% 85 0.63% 170 1.25%
40-49 13 7.4 14.4% 89 0.65% 145 1.07%
50-59 9 9.9 16.8% 104 0.73% 170 1.2%
60-69 4 5.4 10.2% 63 0.44% 115 0.81%
70+ 7 5.3 8.4% 52 0.4% 87 0.67%
All ages 77 55.6 100% 620 0.52% 1088 0.92%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 29864 282086 887 109 2375 3497
December 11 2020 30032 282782 897 112 2432 3620
December 12 2020 30250 283544 902 112 2420 3407
December 13 2020 30474 284654 904 113 2248 3238
December 14 2020 30653 285123 906 113 2043 3164
December 15 2020 30682 285200 915 116 1735 3082
December 16 2020 30853 285746 920 136 1800 3023
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 8.1 5.2% 93 0.15% 143 0.24%
10-19 9 21.7 12.2% 219 0.31% 388 0.55%
20-29 26 38.7 22% 396 0.38% 671 0.65%
30-39 40 29.3 16.6% 299 0.39% 506 0.66%
40-49 27 22.6 12.6% 227 0.35% 417 0.64%
50-59 30 20.0 12.1% 217 0.33% 361 0.55%
60-69 20 17.3 9.6% 172 0.31% 272 0.5%
70+ 13 19.0 9.8% 177 0.36% 265 0.54%
All ages 171 176.7 100% 1800 0.33% 3023 0.55%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 10 2020 426099 2224578 18875 3944 38864 51562
December 11 2020 429957 2231765 19020 3991 38644 54120
December 12 2020 434016 2241348 19162 4041 38926 53146
December 13 2020 436773 2250766 19249 4056 37065 52072
December 14 2020 438895 2255994 19326 4068 34340 51660
December 15 2020 442396 2259792 19510 4122 33010 51083
December 16 2020 444798 2266641 19656 4196 32621 49708
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 135 153.6 4.8% 1560 0.24% 2370 0.37%
10-19 259 356.0 10.9% 3552 0.47% 5500 0.73%
20-29 358 534.6 16.5% 5376 0.71% 8262 1.09%
30-39 373 509.6 15.8% 5168 0.68% 8018 1.06%
40-49 342 466.3 14.3% 4668 0.67% 7122 1.02%
50-59 377 498.1 15.4% 5032 0.62% 7613 0.93%
60-69 291 378.6 11.6% 3786 0.5% 5692 0.75%
70+ 267 350.9 10.7% 3479 0.54% 5131 0.8%
All ages 2402 3247.6 100% 32621 0.56% 49708 0.85%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
66 64.7 78.8 47.1 62.6 29.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
90.2 32.4 86.4 27.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
87.7 25.7 34.9 33.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
92 75.5 107.6 55.6 105 27.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
55.3 54.6 64.6 176.7 300.6 21.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
85.4 72.7 109.2 3247.6 4073.7 31%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.54 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3778"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red